Mobile Analyst iSuppli Joins Gartner and IDC in Predicting Windows Phone Will Beat iOS

By: Hillel Fuld

If you have been paying attention, you surely noticed that Microsoft and Nokia, two companies who have struggled for years in the mobile space, seem to be making a comeback.

When I say comeback, I don’t mean to say they are selling like hotcakes. They aren’t. Yet. Nokia’s Lumia 900, however, won the best smartphone of CES 2012, although, as many pointed out, that is not saying much.

Windows Phone, the platform everyone seems to be talking about, is by all means, an impressive initiative, especially coming from Microsoft, who is best known for  its Windows operating system, as well as its Windows Mobile platform that failed miserably in the mobile sphere.

However, the debate surrounding this platform is ongoing and only intensifying.

Of course, 2015 is a long way away, but the fact that three leading mobile analysts are predicting the success of Windows Phone by 2015 must mean something. Many have already dismissed this analysis as well as the growth of the Windows Phone Marketplace in 2011 with the claim that Microsoft itself is funding these developments, but I think we can all agree to put that claim aside for a second.

Back in September, 2011, Gartner and IDC both predicted that Windows Phone would reach 20% market share by 2015. Windows Phone head of marketing Achim Berg said those numbers are conservative. Well, if Windows Phone will increase from around its current 5% to 20%, who’s market share will it be stealing? Gartner/IDC said the big loser would be iOS and Android will only continue to grow reaching as high as 49% by 2015.

Well, today, iSuppli shed its own light on how the mobile market will look in 2015 and it is not much different than Gartner/IDC’s predictions. See below.

iSuppli is predicting that Windows Phone will grab a 16.7% market share by 2015, while Apple’s market share is expected to decline from 18% to 16.6% in 2015.

What is also interesting about iSuppli’s prediction is that despite Android’s fragmentation and development difficulties, the platform is not expected to see its dominance decline. Android, according to iSuppli, is expected to see its 47.4% share increase to to 58.1% in 2015.

One thing is for sure, this game is far from over!

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