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Windows Phone to Grab 20% of Smartphone Market and Push iOS out of 2nd Place by 2015

04 September 20111 comment Android, inneractive, iPhone, Mobile Advertising, Mobile Industry, Nokia

By: Hillel Fuld

One of the mistakes we are all a little guilty of, is taking a look at the landscape of any given industry, and convincing ourselves that it will remain the same in the coming years. Very rarely is that the case and the mobile industry is a perfect example. I mean, if this past month has taught us anything, it is that anything and everything can change. HP out of the game, Motorola bought by Google, and Steve Jobs is going home. And that is only in the past month!

The mobile space is going to change drastically in the coming years according to research by Gartner and IDC. The market share we are seeing today will most definitely not be the market share we will see within a few years.

According to the recent study, Windows Phone will represent 20% of the smartphone market, with Android growing from its current 23% to a whopping 49% by 2015. iOS will lose the market share that Windows gained with its market share standing on just 17% according to the study.

TechCrunch reports “Windows Phone head of marketing Achim Berg said yesterday that IDC and Gartner’s 20 percent market share forecasts are actually conservative (shocker!), and he expects even greater success out of the platform. And the road to such success starts in Europe, with the launch of the HTC Radar and Titan on October 1. Microsoft has hired “hundreds of salesman” to help demonstrate the power of its newly refreshed platform, and plans to target the ladies and the youngsters to nab that 20 percent share.

Of course, these are not just random and hypothetical predictions, and even today, Windows Phone might not have significant market share, but the OS has reached the 30,000 app milestone faster than both iOS and Android did. That has to say something.

The fact that Nokia will be running the Windows Phone OS on all its high end devices by year’s end and other huge mobile players like HTC are also betting on the platform is sure to give it a major push. Combine that with Microsoft’s marketing budget and you can understand why during the IFA trade show in Berlin on Friday, Windows Phone marketing head Achim Berg told Bloomberg those Windows Phone growth estimates are conservative. “This is a completely new platform, it takes time,” Berg said. “It took time with Android, it took time with Apple. We have to show that we’re very capable and that we have the fastest and easiest phone.”

The OS itself impressed me from day one and while other platforms are busy copying each other, Microsoft seems to have taken all the lessons it learned from the Windows Mobile days and built this platform from the bottom up. Now, they just have to scale it up properly, which is not an easy challenge given the competitive space in which it is operating.

The good news is if you go down the list of things a successful mobile platform needs, things are looking good for Windows Phone. Great UI? Check. Top notch hardware? Check. Apps? Check. Market share? Soon enough…

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  1. Allan E Dean September 20, 2011

    Dramatic forecast. Appreciate the target marketing segment strategy insights – but WHY would so many people abandon iOS and pick up an alternative product (or brand)? True there is opportunity in the mobile market for shares to change dramatically – but WHY would consumers opt to do so? Yes – lots of OEM changes in strategy and org leadership (Steve Jobs) over the last 30 days (or almost did ATT/T-Mobile) – but what's actually changed in terms of the end user experience? Has a brand promise been broken by iOS? It might take more than a new platform to hit these #'s.


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